Every major breakthrough in history was discovered twice. It's a pattern.
When Darwin published his theory of evolution, he was racing against Wallace, who had independently reached the same insight. When Newton invented calculus, Leibniz was developing it too. When Le Verrier calculated the existence of Neptune from mathematical disturbances in Uranus' orbit, Adams had already done the same math.
This pattern never stops. The periodic table? Mendeleev and Meyer. Non-Euclidean geometry? Lobachevsky and Bolyai. The four-minute mile stood unbroken for years - then Bannister did it, and 46 days later, Landy did too.
I can keep going! The microchip - two people in the same year. Lightning rod - two people five years apart. Stratosphere - two people, 3 days apart. ATM machine. Oxygen. Jet engine. Polycarbonate. Television. Film projector. Neutrino mass.
Let us look around today - multiple AI labs independently developing similar ideas. Different teams reaching CRISPR breakthroughs in parallel. Quantum computing thresholds being hit by several companies at once.
An idea becomes discoverable when the conditions are right - when we have the tools, the questions, the right minds, and the foundation of previous understanding.
People working towards AGI or room-temperature superconductors aren't really competing - they're all sensing the same discovery whose time has come.
This raises the question - what are some areas where we will see simultaneous breakthroughs soon? Here are some possible candidates as of late 2024:
1. AGI - Multiple labs showing similar advances in reasoning and capabilities
2. Room temperature superconductors - Teams converging on similar materials and approaches
3. Aging/longevity - Similar mechanisms being discovered across different approaches
4. Nuclear fusion - Several companies/labs reaching key milestones in parallel
5. Brain-computer interfaces - Multiple companies solving this at the same time
6. Quantum error correction - Different approaches reaching similar thresholds
7. General purpose robotics - Several teams independently showing progress in manipulation and dexterity
8. New battery chemistries - Similar solutions for solid-state challenges appearing
9. Programmable matter - Parallel advances in self-assembling materials
10. Cancer blood tests - Different teams finding similar detection methods
11. (bonus) Consciousness understanding - Teams converging on neural correlates
When the breakthrough comes in these areas, it probably won't come alone.